Prediction record
MisseconomyIf US initial jobless claims continue rising in May and June 2025, the US unemployment rate also rises over that period.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“if the initial claims do continue to go up um in May and June, then it seems like it would probably also correspond to the unemployment rate going up”
If US initial jobless claims continue rising in May and June 2025, the US unemployment rate also rises over that period.
- Made on
- 2025-05-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-07-03
Conditional on initial jobless claims rising across May–June 2025, the BLS U-3 unemployment rate for June 2025 is higher than for April 2025.
Determinable once June-2025 payroll data was released (2025-07-03). The conditional's antecedent (initial claims rising across May–June) is broadly met, but the stated consequent — June U-3 higher than April U-3 — is NOT met: U-3 fell from 4.2% (Apr) to 4.1% (Jun). Values are seasonally adjusted headline figures. No outcome value assigned here.
Sources
Unemployment Rate Holds Steady at 4.2%
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
US initial jobless claims trended modestly higher across May–June 2025: from ~low-220Ks in early May to 225K week ending May 30 (a four-month high), 229K (Jun 6), ~237K (Jun 21, revised), and 233K (Jun 28) — so the antecedent 'claims rising' is broadly satisfied.
BLS Employment Situation: the April 2025 U-3 unemployment rate was 4.2% (unchanged).
BLS: the June 2025 U-3 unemployment rate was 4.1% ('little changed at 4.1 percent in June 2025'), i.e. LOWER than April's 4.2%.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Cited jobless-claims evidence shows initial claims trended higher across May–June 2025; antecedent occurred, so the record scores rather than voiding.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If US initial jobless claims continue rising in May and Jun…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-05-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources