Full record
MisseconomyCentral-bank / global liquidity declines into summer 2025.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“So it suggests that liquidity will go down into the summer.”
Central-bank / global liquidity declines into summer 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-05-08
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-09-21
A standard global/central-bank liquidity measure is lower by the end of summer 2025 than at the time of the statement.
Criterion asks whether a standard global/central-bank liquidity measure was LOWER at end of summer 2025 (~Sep 21) than at the statement date (May 8, 2025). Evidence across measures points the opposite way: global M2 hit record highs (~$123.3T) and U.S. M2 reached an all-time high (~$22.2T) in August 2025. One nuance worth logging: several sources note U.S./global money supply 'largely flatlined through much of mid-2025' before growth accelerated from August — so the level was roughly flat-to-up in the interim, but by end of summer it was clearly higher, not lower. No credible source shows a net decline over the May→September 2025 window. No outcome value (o) assigned per stage separation.
Sources
What if Bitcoin Leads Liquidity (and not Lags?)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Global M2 money supply reached a historic high of ~$123.3 trillion in 2025, with a $5T injection in Q1 2025 continuing into the summer; commentary through summer 2025 framed rising global M2 (not a decline) as the dominant liquidity tailwind for risk assets.
U.S. M2 rose to an all-time high of ~$22.2 trillion in August 2025 (up ~4.8% YoY), with month-over-month growth accelerating in Aug/Sep/Oct — the U.S. central-bank liquidity component was higher at end of summer 2025 than in May 2025.
Forbes (Oct 31, 2025) reported global money supply increasing through the period; BM Pro/MacroMicro global-liquidity (major-central-bank M2) series show an upward, record-setting trajectory across summer 2025 rather than a decline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Central-bank / global liquidity declines into summer 2025.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-05-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources