Full record
MissmarketsBitcoin price weakness will begin around mid-June 2025 (price starts declining in anticipation of Q3)
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“I'm going to guess by mid June uh you'll probably start to see that Q3 weakness take hold and markets start to price it in”
Bitcoin price weakness will begin around mid-June 2025 (price starts declining in anticipation of Q3)
- Made on
- 2025-05-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-06-30
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) begins a sustained downward move around mid-June 2025 — price is lower at 2025-06-30 than at 2025-06-15, i.e. a decline commences by mid-June.
Criterion NOT satisfied on the written test: price at 2025-06-30 ($107,135) was higher than at 2025-06-15 ($105,552). A transient dip occurred ~June 22 ($98,286) but reversed before month-end, so no sustained downward move began by mid-June. Resolution is factual only; no outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Golden Cross Dump
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin closed at $105,552.03 on June 15, 2025 and at $107,135.33 on June 30, 2025 — i.e., BTC was HIGHER at month-end than at mid-June, contrary to the criterion's requirement that price be lower on Jun 30 than Jun 15.
There was a mid-June dip (June 22 intraday low ~$98,286, amid Middle East conflict headlines), but BTC recovered above the June 15 level by June 30, so no sustained decline commencing by mid-June through month-end.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin price weakness will begin around mid-June 2025 (pri…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-05-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources