Prediction record
HitmarketsThere is at least a countertrend rally in stocks and crypto during spring 2025
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“there will likely be at the very least a counter trend rally uh sometime later this spring”
There is at least a countertrend rally in stocks and crypto during spring 2025
- Made on
- 2025-04-06
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-05-12
Between Apr 6 and Jun 20 2025 the S&P 500 stages a meaningful countertrend rally off the early-April lows
Both required legs (S&P 500 AND total crypto market cap) rallied meaningfully off the early-April lows inside the window, satisfying the criterion. Caveat noted for the later scoring stage: crypto's rally was more muted/tepid relative to equities, but a move from ~$75K to >$100K in BTC is clearly a 'meaningful countertrend rally.' resolved_on set to mid-May when both legs had unambiguously rallied. Outcome value (o) not assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
S&P 500 staged a large countertrend rally off the Apr 7–9 lows after the Apr 9 tariff pause: ~+15% over six weeks, +6.2% in May alone, turning YTD-positive and adding ~$9.6T in market cap; by end-May global equities had fully rebounded from the Apr 2 selloff. S&P leg of the criterion MET.
Crypto also staged a meaningful countertrend rally off the early-April lows: BTC recovered from ~$75K (early-April low) back above $100K by May 2025, lifting total crypto market cap substantially within the Apr 6–Jun 20 window. Crypto leg of the criterion MET (though it lagged equities).
Corrections
- Resolution criterion: Verbatim commits only to a stock-market countertrend rally ('the stock market's down a lot... there will likely be at the very least a counter trend rally'); the crypto leg is not in the pundit's own words. Resolution unaffected (S&P leg met).
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
There is at least a countertrend rally in stocks and crypto…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-04-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources