Prediction record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500's decline extends into April 2025
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“we said that there's a good chance that this drop could extend into April”
The S&P 500's decline extends into April 2025
- Made on
- 2025-04-03
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.51
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-04-08
The S&P 500 registers a new local low (below its late-March 2025 low) at some point in April 2025
Unambiguous: the decline extended into and bottomed in early April 2025, decisively undercutting the late-March low. resolved_on set to the Apr 8 closing low (intraday low Apr 7). Outcome value (o) not assigned.
Sources
S&P 500: What Is Happening?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Trump's Apr 2, 2025 'Liberation Day' reciprocal tariffs triggered a sharp selloff Apr 3–8; the S&P 500 fell ~12% over four trading days, setting an April intraday low (~4,835 on Apr 7) and closing low (~4,983 on Apr 8) far below the late-March 2025 local low (index had been ~5,600–5,700 in late March). Criterion (new local low below late-March low, during April) MET.
Market-history summary marking the 2025 'Tariff Tantrum' trough at Apr 3–8, 2025 — the lowest point of the drawdown occurred in early April, below the prior late-March levels.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.51- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.51
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The S&P 500's decline extends into April 2025- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-04-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources