Full record
HitmarketsAfter the sharp post-tariff-pause rally, markets pull back to at least a higher low within one to two weeks
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“Remember, normally when you get a big move up like this, there will likely be a drop back down to at least a higher low within a week or two is my guess.”
After the sharp post-tariff-pause rally, markets pull back to at least a higher low within one to two weeks
- Made on
- 2025-04-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-04-21
Within ~2 weeks of Apr 10 2025, the S&P 500 pulls back to at least a higher low (above the prior swing low)
Within the ~2-week window the S&P pulled back (Apr 21) to a higher low well above the prior swing low (4,835/4,983) without revisiting the crash bottom. Criterion terms are met. Closing values corroborated across Yahoo Finance / FRED historical series.
Sources
Trump 90-Day Tariff Pause
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Prior swing low (the crash bottom): S&P 500 intraday low 4,835.04 on Apr 7 2025 and closing low 4,982.77 on Apr 8 2025. This is the reference low the pullback had to stay above.
After the Apr 9 +9.5% pause rally and the Apr 10 giveback, the S&P chopped and made its next local low at 5,158.20 on Apr 21 2025 (intraday ~5,101), then rebounded to 5,287.76 (Apr 22), 5,375.86 (Apr 23) and 5,484.77 (Apr 24). The 5,158/5,101 low sits ~300-320 pts ABOVE the Apr 7-8 swing low, i.e. a clean higher low, and it formed within ~2 weeks of Apr 10 (before the Apr 24 deadline).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
After the sharp post-tariff-pause rally, markets pull back…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-04-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources