Full record
HitmarketsGold outperforms the S&P 500 over the near term
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“I still think gold will likely outperform the S&P 500 for a while here as it has been.”
Gold outperforms the S&P 500 over the near term
- Made on
- 2025-04-11
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-04-10
Over the ~12 months from Apr 11 2025, gold's total return exceeds the S&P 500's total return
Over the ~12-month window, gold total return (~+46.6%) exceeded the S&P 500 total return (~+28-29%) by a wide, non-marginal margin. Gold outperformed. S&P endpoint uses Apr 10 2026 close (last trading day before the Sat Apr 11 deadline). Even a several-hundred-bps error in the S&P total-return estimate does not change the ordering.
Sources
Inflation Drops to 2.4%
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Gold: $3,238.82/oz on Apr 11 2025 → $4,748.72/oz on Apr 11 2026 = +46.6% (gold pays no yield, so this is the total return).
Gold Apr 11 2026 endpoint value.
S&P 500: 5,363.36 close on Apr 11 2025 → 6,816.89 close on Apr 10 2026 (Apr 11 2026 was a Saturday; Apr 10 is the last trading day of the window) = +27.1% price return; adding the ~1.2-1.3% index dividend yield gives an ~12-month total return of roughly +28-29%.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Gold outperforms the S&P 500 over the near term- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-04-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources