Full record

Hitmarkets

Gold makes new all-time highs before the S&P 500 reaches new all-time highs

A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .

VideoQuote from the original sourcemarkets

Scored prediction

Hitmarkets

gold should hit new highs before the S&P 500 does. It tends to do so during this part of the business cycle.

Gold makes new all-time highs before the S&P 500 reaches new all-time highs

Made on
2025-04-11
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5
Effect on score
+2.76

What counted as right

Status
resolved
Settled on
2025-06-27

Gold prints a new all-time high on a date earlier than the S&P 500's next new all-time high

Ordering is unambiguous: gold's next ATH (Apr 2025) preceded the S&P 500's next ATH (Jun 27 2025) by ~10 weeks. resolved_on set to the S&P's new-ATH date, the point at which the ordering became definitively determined.

Sources

  • Inflation Drops to 2.4%

    YouTube ·

    Source

Evidence of what happened

  • Gold printed fresh all-time highs in April 2025, surpassing $3,500/oz for the first time in history on Apr 22 2025 (part of a continuous ATH sequence in mid-to-late April 2025) — i.e. gold made a new ATH within days of the Apr 11 2025 claim date.

    Evidence

  • The S&P 500's prior ATH was 6,144.15 (closing) set Feb 19 2025; after the tariff crash it did not set a NEW record until late June 2025 — its first record close since February came on Jun 27 2025 (~6,173), rebounding to a fresh ATH.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Effect on the score

+2.76
How sure they sounded
80%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

Gold makes new all-time highs before the S&P 500 reaches ne…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
August 2, 2026
Made on
2025-04-11

How this profile was built

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