Prediction record
HitmarketsGold makes new all-time highs before the S&P 500 reaches new all-time highs
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“gold should hit new highs before the S&P 500 does. It tends to do so during this part of the business cycle.”
Gold makes new all-time highs before the S&P 500 reaches new all-time highs
- Made on
- 2025-04-11
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-06-27
Gold prints a new all-time high on a date earlier than the S&P 500's next new all-time high
Ordering is unambiguous: gold's next ATH (Apr 2025) preceded the S&P 500's next ATH (Jun 27 2025) by ~10 weeks. resolved_on set to the S&P's new-ATH date, the point at which the ordering became definitively determined.
Sources
Inflation Drops to 2.4%
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Gold printed fresh all-time highs in April 2025, surpassing $3,500/oz for the first time in history on Apr 22 2025 (part of a continuous ATH sequence in mid-to-late April 2025) — i.e. gold made a new ATH within days of the Apr 11 2025 claim date.
The S&P 500's prior ATH was 6,144.15 (closing) set Feb 19 2025; after the tariff crash it did not set a NEW record until late June 2025 — its first record close since February came on Jun 27 2025 (~6,173), rebounding to a fresh ATH.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Gold makes new all-time highs before the S&P 500 reaches ne…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-04-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources