Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin dominance continues rising until the Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening, regardless of Bitcoin's USD price direction
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“My base case right now for Bitcoin dominance is that it will likely go higher until quantitative tightening is over. Okay, regardless of whether Bitcoin USD goes up or down.”
Bitcoin dominance continues rising until the Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening, regardless of Bitcoin's USD price direction
- Made on
- 2025-04-15
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-01
BTC dominance trends net higher from Apr 15 2025 up to the date the Fed ends QT
Evidence cuts against the claim, but I assign no outcome value. Two sides for the record: (a) supporting — dominance DID rise from Apr 15 (~63-64%) into a June 2025 peak (~65%); (b) refuting — it then declined through H2 2025 and, at the QT-end endpoint (Dec 1 2025, ~58-60%), was NET LOWER than the Apr 15 start, contradicting 'continues rising until the Fed ends QT.' Exact Dec 1 2025 BTC.D point value not sourced to a single primary tick; Nov 2025 ~59% and the June-peak-then-decline trajectory make 'net higher to the QT-end date' unsupported. Timeframe/source note: BTC.D figures vary slightly by provider (CoinGecko vs CoinMarketCap vs TradingView), but all show the same June-peak → H2-decline shape.
Sources
The Bitcoin Dominance Train Continues
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Endpoint fixed: the FOMC (Oct 29 2025) announced it would conclude balance-sheet runoff (QT), which officially ended Dec 1 2025 — so the 'until the Fed ends QT' evaluation window runs Apr 15 2025 → Dec 1 2025.
BTC dominance was ~63-64% in mid-April 2025 (it had crossed 60% on Apr 7 2025) and rose into a June 2025 peak of ~65%.
After the June 2025 peak (~65%), BTC.D trended DOWN through H2 2025: it dropped from ~61.4% to ~58.8-59% during November 2025 (an ~$80B rotation out of BTC), and continued lower into 2026 (~57% by March 2026). Thus around the QT-end date (Dec 1 2025) dominance was ~58-60% — BELOW the ~63-64% April 15 2025 starting level.
Corrections
- horizon deadline: Event-referenced deadline ('until QT is over'); Fed ended QT 2025-12-01 (FOMC Oct 2025), which is the resolution endpoint — deadline must be the event date, not a +12mo placeholder.
- Prediction timeframe: Align basis with the event-date deadline rule and known QT-end date.
- tags: Subject is Bitcoin dominance (a crypto metric); crypto primary per tag-by-subject rule, economy secondary for the QT linkage.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin dominance continues rising until the Federal Reserv…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-04-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources