Full record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening by the July 2025 FOMC meeting at the latest.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“the most likely outcome is that quantitative tightening does End by the July meeting at the latest”
The Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening by the July 2025 FOMC meeting at the latest.
- Made on
- 2025-03-19
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-07-31
The Fed announces the end of balance-sheet runoff (QT) on or before its July 2025 FOMC meeting (~2025-07-30).
The Fed did NOT end QT on or before its July 2025 FOMC meeting. It merely slowed runoff in March 2025; the actual end was announced Oct 29, 2025, effective Dec 1, 2025 — well past the ~July 30 deadline. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin Pre-FOMC
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The FOMC did not announce the end of balance-sheet runoff by its July 2025 meeting. It slowed QT in March 2025 (cutting the monthly Treasury redemption cap from $25B to $5B effective April 1) but continued runoff through the summer.
The Fed did not announce the end of QT until October 29, 2025, ceasing balance-sheet runoff effective December 1, 2025 — roughly four months after the July FOMC deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.12- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening by the Jul…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-03-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources