Prediction record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening by the July 2025 FOMC meeting at the latest.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“the most likely outcome is that quantitative tightening does End by the July meeting at the latest”
The Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening by the July 2025 FOMC meeting at the latest.
- Made on
- 2025-03-19
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-07-31
The Fed announces the end of balance-sheet runoff (QT) on or before its July 2025 FOMC meeting (~2025-07-30).
The Fed did NOT end QT on or before its July 2025 FOMC meeting. It merely slowed runoff in March 2025; the actual end was announced Oct 29, 2025, effective Dec 1, 2025 — well past the ~July 30 deadline. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin Pre-FOMC
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The FOMC did not announce the end of balance-sheet runoff by its July 2025 meeting. It slowed QT in March 2025 (cutting the monthly Treasury redemption cap from $25B to $5B effective April 1) but continued runoff through the summer.
The Fed did not announce the end of QT until October 29, 2025, ceasing balance-sheet runoff effective December 1, 2025 — roughly four months after the July FOMC deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.12- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening by the Jul…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-03-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources