Full record
MissmarketsThe equity market (S&P 500 / QQQ) will make a macro lower high in Q2 or Q3 2025.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“The macro lower high would probably occur in Q2 or Q3.”
The equity market (S&P 500 / QQQ) will make a macro lower high in Q2 or Q3 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-03-07
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-06-27
The S&P 500 and/or QQQ forms a macro lower high (a peak below the prior macro/cycle high) at some point during 2025-04-01 to 2025-09-30.
Criterion required a 'macro LOWER high' (a peak BELOW the prior macro/cycle high of 6,144 set Feb 2025) during 2025-04-01 to 2025-09-30. Instead, within the window the S&P 500 and QQQ/Nasdaq made a HIGHER high (new all-time high, 6,173 on 2025-06-27, and continued higher through Q3), so the predicted lower-high structure did not occur. Resolvable and clearly falsified; resolved_on set to the date the new ATH invalidated the lower-high scenario. No conflicting credible evidence.
Sources
Bitcoin Market Cycles: Right Translated or Left Translated?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The prior macro/cycle high before the window was the S&P 500's record close of 6,144.15 on 2025-02-19. After the April 2025 tariff selloff (index bottomed ~April 8), the S&P 500 RECOVERED and set a NEW all-time high of 6,173.07 on 2025-06-27 — exceeding the prior peak, not forming a lower high.
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite (proxy for QQQ) hit new record highs on 2025-06-27, completing the rebound from the April lows; the S&P went on to set ~39 all-time highs across 2025.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.12- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The equity market (S&P 500 / QQQ) will make a macro lower h…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-03-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources