Prediction record
MisseconomyThe Bank of Japan raises interest rates again in Q3 2025 (July–September).
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“there is a good chance that the [Bank of Japan] will raise rates again in the third quarter of the year”
The Bank of Japan raises interest rates again in Q3 2025 (July–September).
- Made on
- 2025-03-19
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-09-30
The Bank of Japan announces a policy-rate increase at any meeting between 2025-07-01 and 2025-09-30.
Both Q3 2025 BOJ meetings (July 31 and Sept 18-19) held at 0.5%. No policy-rate increase in the July 1 - Sept 30 window, so the predicted Q3 hike did not happen. The subsequent hike was December 19, 2025 (outside the window). No outcome value assigned.
Sources
The Fed Slows Quantitative Tightening
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The Bank of Japan held its short-term policy rate at 0.5% at its July 31, 2025 meeting and again at its September 18-19, 2025 meeting (7-2 vote), the last policy meetings in Q3 2025. No rate increase was announced in the July 1 - September 30 window.
The BOJ's next hike did not come until the December 19, 2025 meeting, when it raised the short-term rate to a 30-year high — confirming no Q3 2025 hike occurred.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Isolated verbatim removed the pundit's hedge; the source frames the hike as probable/expected, not a bare assertion. Restore the hedge so certainty is not laundered upward.
- certainty verbatim marker: Operative modality is 'a good chance'/'a decent likelihood', echoed in the repetition. 'will' materially inflates confidence and would over-penalize a false resolution at scoring time.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Bank of Japan raises interest rates again in Q3 2025 (J…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-03-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources