Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin sees more price volatility in 2025 than it did in 2024.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“you probably will get more volatility this year than you got last year”
Bitcoin sees more price volatility in 2025 than it did in 2024.
- Made on
- 2025-01-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
Bitcoin's 2025 max intra-year drawdown (or realized volatility) exceeds its 2024 figure.
Criterion is disjunctive (drawdown OR realized volatility exceeds 2024). Full-year 2025 data now exists, so resolvable. Evidence points against the claim on the volatility limb (2.24% 2025 < 2.80% 2024, an all-time low) and to a near-tie on the drawdown limb (~32% 2025 vs ~32.7% 2024, essentially flat/slightly lower). Both credible metrics indicate 2025 volatility did NOT clearly exceed 2024. Outcome value left to the quantify/score stage; drawdown figures are close enough that the precise metric choice matters.
Sources
Bitcoin: Post-Halving Year
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
By realized/historical volatility, 2025 was LESS volatile than 2024: Bitcoin ended 2025 with realized daily volatility of ~2.24% — the lowest annual reading in its recorded history — down from ~2.80% in 2024. 2025 historical volatility registered ~42%.
By max intra-year drawdown, the two years were roughly comparable: 2025's largest drawdown was ~32% (the Oct 2025 selloff, cited at up to ~-36% where it extended into 2026), versus 2024's ~32.7% March-high ($73,750) to August-low ($49,221) drawdown.
2024 max drawdown reference: ~32.7% from the March 2024 ATH above $73,000 to the August 2024 low of $49,221.
Corrections
- tags: Subject is Bitcoin's price volatility → 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary per the closed tag dictionary.
Score contribution
-0.56- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin sees more price volatility in 2025 than it did in 2…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-01-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources