Prediction record
MissmarketsETH/BTC begins an uptrend / finds strength in Q1 2025, regardless of BTC/USD direction
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“eth Bitcoin will start to find strength in q1 of 2025”
ETH/BTC begins an uptrend / finds strength in Q1 2025, regardless of BTC/USD direction
- Made on
- 2024-12-21
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.18
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-03-31
The ETH/BTC ratio establishes an uptrend (a higher low followed by higher highs, net gain over the quarter) during Q1 2025.
Criterion (uptrend = higher low then higher highs, net gain over Q1) not met: ETH/BTC posted a large net loss and made new multi-year lows during Q1 2025. The sharp rebound occurred later in 2025 (post-Q1), outside the window. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
ETH / BTC
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
ETH/BTC fell sharply in Q1 2025: ETH dropped ~38% (worst Q1 underperformance vs BTC since 2018) while BTC fell only ~6.5%. The ratio hit its lowest level since May 2020, i.e. a downtrend with lower lows, not the higher-low/higher-high uptrend the criterion requires.
ETH/BTC continued weak into April 2025, bottoming near multi-year lows around the 'Liberation Day' tariff turmoil before a later-2025 rebound — confirming no uptrend was established during Q1.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.18- Confidence
- 55%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.18
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
ETH/BTC begins an uptrend / finds strength in Q1 2025, rega…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources