Prediction record
HitmarketsThe US 10-year Treasury yield will break above its current resistance within the coming weeks.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“the 10-year yield will break through here and it's simply because the economy continues to run pretty hot”
The US 10-year Treasury yield will break above its current resistance within the coming weeks.
- Made on
- 2024-11-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-01-14
The US 10-year Treasury yield closes above its early-November 2024 resistance level at some point before 2025-02-07.
Criterion met under any reasonable reading of 'early-November 2024 resistance' (~4.43-4.50%). The break above occurred by late December 2024 — within 'the coming weeks' of the Nov 7 call — and extended to a 4.79% high on Jan 14, 2025, comfortably inside the Feb 7, 2025 window. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
The Fed Cuts Interest Rates (and Bitcoin and Ethereum Discussion)
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Early-November 2024 resistance: the US 10-year Treasury yield leapt ~14bps to 4.433% on Nov 5-6, 2024 on the Trump election result, its highest level since July 2024 — establishing the early-November resistance level referenced in the claim.
The 10-year yield subsequently rose to 4.79% on Jan 14, 2025 (2025 peak), decisively above the early-November ~4.43% resistance and even above the April 2024 high (~4.70%), and did so well before the 2025-02-07 deadline. FRED series DGS10 shows the yield climbing above the early-Nov level by late December 2024 (~4.57%) and continuing higher into mid-January.
Corrections
- Prediction timeframe: 'coming weeks' is absent from the source transcript; the only committed timeframe stated is the end-of-year rally.
- horizon deadline: Correct inference from the actual spoken cue; does not change resolution — the break occurred by late Dec 2024.
Score contribution
+3.82- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US 10-year Treasury yield will break above its current…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-11-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources