Full record
MisseconomyThe US unemployment rate is higher on 2024-12-31 than it was on 2024-09-30
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“by the end of the year the unemployment rate will be higher then than it is today”
The US unemployment rate is higher on 2024-12-31 than it was on 2024-09-30
- Made on
- 2024-09-30
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.79
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-01-10
US unemployment rate (BLS U-3) for Dec 2024 exceeds the Sep 2024 rate (4.1%)
Criterion requires Dec 2024 U-3 to EXCEED the Sep 2024 rate of 4.1%. Dec 2024 U-3 = 4.1%, equal to (not greater than) Sep 2024 = 4.1%. The strict 'exceeds' threshold is not met. Primary source is BLS. Not assigning outcome/score.
Sources
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
BLS Employment Situation: US unemployment rate (U-3) was 4.1% in December 2024 (released Jan 10, 2025), the SAME as the September 2024 rate of 4.1% — it did not increase. BLS noted the rate had been 4.1% or 4.2% for the prior seven months.
CNBC report on the December 2024 jobs report confirms the unemployment rate fell to / held at 4.1% in December 2024.
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: Committed statement is prefixed by the hedge 'my guess is that' in the transcript; capturing it informs confidence p.
Effect on the score
+0.79- How sure they sounded
- 55%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US unemployment rate is higher on 2024-12-31 than it wa…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-09-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources