Full record
MissmarketsThe Bitcoin/crypto downtrend from the March 2024 high lasts roughly 6–9 months, continuing through the September–December 2024 window before bottoming.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“back in March I said six to nine months and it's been six months almost right it's been six months”
The Bitcoin/crypto downtrend from the March 2024 high lasts roughly 6–9 months, continuing through the September–December 2024 window before bottoming.
- Made on
- 2024-09-05
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-05
Bitcoin/the total crypto market does not confirm a cycle bottom before ~September 2024 and continues declining into the September–December 2024 window (downtrend duration ~6–9 months from the March 2024 high).
Criterion required BTC/total crypto to keep declining into the Sep–Dec 2024 window (downtrend ~6–9 months from the March 2024 high, bottoming late). Instead Bitcoin bottomed in summer 2024 and rallied to a new all-time high above $100k by 2024-12-05, so the described continued downtrend did not occur. resolved_on = 2024-12-05 (new ATH definitively disconfirms). Note: ETH specifically remained weak, but the record is written about Bitcoin/the total crypto market. (Outcome value/scoring deferred.)
Sources
Bitcoin: Hard Landing Vs. Soft Landing
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin did NOT continue declining into the Sep–Dec 2024 window. It rallied more than 30% after the Nov 5 US election and surpassed $100,000 for the first time on 2024-12-05 (reaching ~$103,679) — a new all-time high, well above the March 2024 high of ~$73,800.
BTC's post-halving local lows were in summer 2024 (dropped to ~$57k after the April halving, local weakness into Aug–early Sep 2024), after which it recovered and then broke out to record highs — the opposite of a downtrend continuing/bottoming in Sep–Dec 2024.
BTC closed 2024 at ~$93,429 (2024-12-31), up strongly from its March high — confirming crypto was in a new uptrend/ATH regime, not a ~6–9 month downtrend bottoming late in the year.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Cited verbatim is absent from the transcript; these are the actual fetched_primary words at t≈1491s, matching the record's own context field. quote_status stays fetched_primary.
- certainty verbatim marker: 'probably' came from the unfound verbatim; the actual words contain no such hedge marker. Confidence to be re-derived from the corrected quote at quantify.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Bitcoin/crypto downtrend from the March 2024 high lasts…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-09-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources