Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin rallies into the imminent moving-average death cross
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“Bitcoin to rally into the death cross”
Bitcoin rallies into the imminent moving-average death cross
- Made on
- 2024-08-08
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-08-15
BTC price trends net higher from 2024-08-08 into the formation of the 50/200 death cross (~mid-August 2024)
Criterion asks whether BTC 'trends net higher' from 2024-08-08 into the death-cross formation. Evidence: BTC closed ~$61.7k on Aug 8 (after a large one-day pop to ~$62.75k intraday) and the death cross formed mid-August at ~$61,000-61,300 — i.e. roughly flat-to-lower, a sideways/down drift into the cross, not a rally higher. Exact cross date varies by source (~Aug 11 per U.Today's report; some sources place the fully-formed cross ~Aug 19 near ~$59k); under either dating BTC did not net-rally into it. Precise daily-close reconciliation (CoinCodex/Investing historical tables) was not machine-retrievable at run time, but multiple qualitative sources agree on the ~$61k level at formation. Outcome value not assigned (later stage).
Sources
Bitcoin Death Cross Rally
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC's first 2024 50/200-day death cross formed in mid-August 2024 (article dated 2024-08-11) with BTC trading at ~$61,313, essentially flat-to-lower versus the 2024-08-08 rally peak. On 2024-08-08 BTC posted its 'highest one-day rise in more than 16 months,' momentarily reaching ~$62,755 intraday (close ~$61.7k). Into the death-cross formation BTC consolidated/drifted sideways-to-down in the low-$60,000s rather than rallying net higher.
Aug 8, 2024 context: BTC recovering from the Aug 5 carry-trade crash (~$49k) with a pending death cross; short-term rally into ~$61k, not a sustained uptrend into the cross.
The August 2024 death cross formed near $61,000 and proved a 'false alarm' — a subsequent golden cross preceded a ~72% rally, but that recovery came weeks later (Sept/Oct), not during the Aug 8→cross window.
Corrections
- tags: Claim is a Bitcoin-specific price move; 'crypto' is the more central primary tag, consistent with the other BTC records (both tags are in the controlled dictionary — a centrality fix, not a validity fix).
Score contribution
-0.56- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin rallies into the imminent moving-average death cross- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources