Prediction record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve will make its first interest-rate cut of the cycle in September 2024.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“with the most likely outcome at this time I still believe is is not until September”
The Federal Reserve will make its first interest-rate cut of the cycle in September 2024.
- Made on
- 2024-06-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-09-18
The FOMC announces the first rate cut of the easing cycle at its September 2024 meeting (first cut occurs in September 2024, not earlier or later).
Primary source (Federal Reserve press release) confirms the first cut of the easing cycle was announced at the September 2024 FOMC meeting. No cut occurred before September 2024 (prior cut was 2020 COVID emergency, a different cycle) and the cut did land in September, so the 'first cut in September, not earlier or later' criterion is met exactly.
Sources
The Labor Market
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Official FOMC statement (Sept 18, 2024): the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. This was the first rate cut of the easing cycle, occurring at the September 2024 meeting.
CNBC: Fed enacted its first interest-rate cut since the early days of the Covid pandemic on Sept 18, 2024, a 50bp reduction — the first cut in four years, confirming it is the cycle's first cut and that it occurred in September (not earlier).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Federal Reserve will make its first interest-rate cut o…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-06-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources