Prediction record
MisscryptoThe ETH/BTC ratio makes its cycle bottom during summer 2024, ending the ETH-to-BTC rotation.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“my base case at this point is that ETH Bitcoin bottoms out sometime this summer, but not ETH USD. ETH Bitcoin.”
The ETH/BTC ratio makes its cycle bottom during summer 2024, ending the ETH-to-BTC rotation.
- Made on
- 2024-05-13
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-04-30
The ETH/BTC ratio prints a local minimum between 2024-06-01 and 2024-09-22 that is not undercut on a closing basis for at least the following 3 months.
Criterion (local minimum in 2024-06-01..2024-09-22 not undercut on a closing basis for the following 3 months) is clearly NOT satisfied: the ratio fell continuously through H2 2024 and bottomed ~0.0177 in April 2025. Deterministic daily ETH/BTC close data (e.g. from a spot exchange) would pin the exact undercut date, but the direction is unambiguous across all sources. No outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
Ethereum Falls Below Its Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The ETH/BTC ratio did NOT bottom in summer 2024. It had been declining since its May 2024 level and kept falling through the second half of 2024 — roughly 0.045-0.05 over the Jun-Sep 2024 window, down to ~0.026 by December 2024 — meaning any local minimum printed between 2024-06-01 and 2024-09-22 was undercut on a closing basis within the following 3 months.
The ratio continued lower and printed its true cycle bottom at 0.01770 in April 2025 (during the 'Liberation Day' tariff selloff), far below any summer-2024 value — the summer-2024 low decisively did not end the ETH-to-BTC rotation.
Context: ETH underperformed BTC sharply after the summer — as of 2024-11-08, ETH was +32% YTD vs USD while BTC was +83%, confirming the rotation into BTC continued past summer 2024.
Corrections
- tags: Pure crypto metric (ETH/BTC ratio); crypto is most-central controlled tag, consistent with sibling records.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The ETH/BTC ratio makes its cycle bottom during summer 2024…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-05-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources