Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin (USD) makes a local price bottom (summer low) during summer 2024.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“I think there's a good chance there's a summer L there is no guarantee that there's going to be one”
Bitcoin (USD) makes a local price bottom (summer low) during summer 2024.
- Made on
- 2024-05-09
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-12-06
BTC/USD prints a local low between 2024-06-01 and 2024-09-22 that is not undercut on a closing basis for at least the following 3 months.
Criterion (local low in window not undercut on a closing basis for at least 3 months) is satisfied: the Aug 5 / early-Sept 2024 low held through Q4 2024's rally to $100k+. resolved_on set to ~3 months after the early-September low (the point at which the 3-month hold was confirmed). Exact daily-close low value can be pinned from spot-exchange OHLC if needed. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
BTC ROI After Halving
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC/USD flash-crashed to ~$49,000 on 2024-08-05 during the yen-carry-trade unwind (from ~$64k days earlier), and printed a second local low in early September 2024 around $52,500-$54,500 — both within the 2024-06-01..2024-09-22 window.
After the early-September low, BTC rallied strongly: ~+38% in November after the US election, surpassing $100,000 for the first time on 2024-12-04 (high ~$103,844). It never closed back below the summer low for well over 3 months, confirming the summer-2024 print as a durable local bottom.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin (USD) makes a local price bottom (summer low) durin…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-05-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources