Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin will fall to and test its bull-market support band (20-week SMA / 21-week EMA) during summer 2024
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“Bitcoin will go to the 20we moving average within the next few weeks”
Bitcoin will fall to and test its bull-market support band (20-week SMA / 21-week EMA) during summer 2024
- Made on
- 2024-04-19
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-07-05
Bitcoin's price touches or trades down to its bull-market support band (the 20-week SMA / 21-week EMA zone) at some point by end of summer (Aug 31) 2024
Criterion: BTC touches/trades down to the 20W-SMA / 21W-EMA support band by Aug 31, 2024. Satisfied with wide margin — BTC not only touched but traded well BELOW the band on two occasions (early July ~$53.5k; Aug 5 ~$49k). Exact band value stated as approximate (~low-$60,000s), computed from the summer price path; the resolution does not depend on the precise band level since BTC undershot it substantially. resolved_on set to the first test (early-July dip). No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Halving Approaches
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin's weekly bull-market support band (20-week SMA / 21-week EMA) sat in roughly the low-$60,000s during summer 2024 (BTC traded ~$60k-$73k Mar-Jul with the moving-average band trailing in the ~$60k-$64k zone). BTC traded DOWN INTO and THROUGH this band twice: an early-July 2024 slide to ~$53,500, and the Aug 5, 2024 crash wick to ~$49,000.
Aug 5, 2024 yen-carry-trade unwind drove BTC from ~$64,000 to ~$49,000 within 48 hours — far below the support band, decisively satisfying a 'touches or trades down to the band' criterion.
Weekly moving-average reference (20W SMA) for BTC through 2024 confirms the band level was in the ~$60k range in summer 2024, well above both the July ~$53.5k and Aug ~$49k lows.
Corrections
- tags: A crypto price/level bet (BTC to its 20W-SMA band); dictionary directs pure crypto price bets to carry 'markets' as secondary so the market-timing sub-score stays continuous.
Score contribution
+1.91- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will fall to and test its bull-market support band…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources