Prediction record
MisseconomyThe first Federal Reserve rate cut of the cycle arrives around June 2024
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“rate Cuts are likely going to be in June”
The first Federal Reserve rate cut of the cycle arrives around June 2024
- Made on
- 2024-03-24
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-07-31
The FOMC cuts the federal funds target rate for the first time this easing cycle on or before 2024-07-31.
Deadline (2024-07-31) passed with the fed funds target unchanged (5.25-5.50%). The first cut arrived 2024-09-18, ~7 weeks after the criterion deadline. Window closed unmet; resolved_on set to the deadline date. Primary source is the Federal Reserve's own FOMC statement.
Sources
Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation (The Movie)
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The FOMC's first rate cut of the cycle occurred on Sept 18, 2024 (50bps, to 4.75-5.00%) — the Fed's first cut in over four years. No cut occurred at or before the July 30-31, 2024 FOMC meeting; the target range was held at 5.25-5.50% through that meeting.
Contemporaneous coverage confirms the September 18, 2024 cut was the first reduction of the cycle, ruling out any earlier June or July 2024 cut.
Corrections
- statement context: Stored context was drawn from the mooXO-U2nno (2024-03-28) repetition, not the anchored primary eQFG_CwikjQ (made_on 2024-03-24); context should quote the primary video.
Score contribution
-1.12- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The first Federal Reserve rate cut of the cycle arrives aro…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources