Prediction record
MissmarketsIf Bitcoin holds its 8-week moving average (~57–58k), it rallies into the April 2024 halving
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“I think a lot of this comes back down to whether Bitcoin holds the 8we moving average. If it holds the 8we moving average then I think that it gets a bounce into the having.”
If Bitcoin holds its 8-week moving average (~57–58k), it rallies into the April 2024 halving
- Made on
- 2024-03-20
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-04-20
Given Bitcoin holds its 8-week moving average, its price is higher going into the April 2024 halving than at the time of the claim.
Antecedent (BTC holds its ~57-58k 8-week MA) was satisfied — BTC stayed well above that level throughout late March to the April halving. Consequent (price higher going into the April halving than at the 2024-03-20 claim) was NOT satisfied: halving-day price ~$63-64k was below the claim-date close of $67,880.97. Evidence bears directly on the written criterion. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin's closing price on 2024-03-20 (the claim date) was $67,880.97.
The 2024 Bitcoin halving occurred at block 840,000 on April 19-20, 2024, with BTC trading approximately $63,000-$64,300 on the day of the halving.
Between the mid-March all-time high (~$73k) and the April 19-20 halving, BTC did not rally; the price at the halving (~$63-64k) was reported as a decline, not a new high — Bitcoin held well above its ~57-58k 8-week moving average the entire time (never closed below ~$60k in the window).
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Resolution notes/evidence establish the antecedent (BTC held its ~57-58k 8-week MA into the halving) objectively occurred; condition_met must reflect that so the conditional scores on the consequent (a miss).
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If Bitcoin holds its 8-week moving average (~57–58k), it ra…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources