Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin's market-cycle price peak occurs in Q4 2025
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“if it plays out like historical cycles it would mean a peak sometime in Q4 of 2025”
Bitcoin's market-cycle price peak occurs in Q4 2025
- Made on
- 2024-03-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-10-06
Bitcoin's highest price of the market cycle is printed during Q4 2025 (October–December 2025).
Criterion (highest price of the market cycle printed during Q4 2025) is met: the cycle ATH was 2025-10-06, within Q4 2025, and it has held as the top through a >40% drawdown into mid-2026, so it is confirmable in hindsight (deadline 2025-12-31 well past; now 2026-07-12). resolved_on set to the ATH print date. Residual definitional risk: 'market cycle' is a fuzzy retrospective construct — a much later 2026-2027 higher high could be argued to belong to 'this cycle' by some framings, but under the standard ~4-year cycle definition the Oct-2025 top followed by a deep bear market is a clear cycle peak. Prediction direction matched; no outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin: Market Cycles
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin printed its cycle all-time high of ~$126,210 (reported $125,836-$126,279 across venues) on October 6, 2025 — squarely within Q4 2025 (Oct-Dec).
The Oct 6, 2025 high was not exceeded afterward: BTC fell sharply in Q4 2025 (tariff-driven ~$19B liquidation cascade dropping it below $105K days after the ATH) and continued down into 2026 (to ~$60K by late Feb 2026), trading in the ~$75K-$83K range by mid-2026. As of 2026-07-12 the October 2025 high remains the unbroken cycle top, confirming the peak occurred in Q4 2025.
Late-2025 reporting corroborates BTC was already ~30% off its record by early December 2025, i.e. rolling over after the Q4 2025 top.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Stored verbatim was a reordered/compressed paraphrase; restore the actual contiguous spoken words (present in context and transcript). Meaning and canonical claim unchanged.
Score contribution
+3.82- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's market-cycle price peak occurs in Q4 2025- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources