Prediction record
HitmarketsAltcoins break down against Bitcoin (altcoin/BTC pairs decline) during April 2024, the halving month
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“I I think that all Bitcoin pairs are going to break down in April I I think in the in the having month I think is when they break down”
Altcoins break down against Bitcoin (altcoin/BTC pairs decline) during April 2024, the halving month
- Made on
- 2024-03-20
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-04-30
A broad basket of major altcoins measured in BTC terms declines (net lower altcoin/BTC pairs) over April 2024.
Direction of the criterion (a broad basket of major altcoins declines in BTC terms over April 2024) is supported: rising BTC dominance + declining ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC. Caveat: outcome is basket- and weighting-dependent, and I could not fetch a single clean day-1-vs-day-30 basket-in-BTC series (Yahoo returned 503). Evidence is directional/corroborating rather than one authoritative basket index; resolvable but the quantify stage should confirm with a defined basket if precision is needed. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Around the April 2024 halving, altcoins broadly underperformed BTC: Bitcoin increased its market share while ETH and SOL lagged, and market commentary notes risk-off, altcoin sell-offs during the halving window. Bitcoin dominance held/rose over the period, the mechanical corollary of altcoin/BTC pairs declining.
ETH/BTC was in a sustained 2024 downtrend driven by BTC's post-ETF outperformance; the ratio lost the 0.05 level at the end of July 2024, meaning it was declining through Q2 2024 (April included). Corroborates a broad altcoin/BTC decline over April 2024.
Mid-April 2024 risk-off event (Iran-Israel tensions, ~April 13) triggered a sharp crypto sell-off in which higher-beta altcoins fell more than BTC, consistent with net-lower altcoin/BTC pairs over the month.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Altcoins break down against Bitcoin (altcoin/BTC pairs decl…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources