Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin undergoes at least a 10% price correction within the next few weeks (by ~April 2024).
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“I have to imagine that sometime the next few weeks we'll probably get a 10% correction right”
Bitcoin undergoes at least a 10% price correction within the next few weeks (by ~April 2024).
- Made on
- 2024-01-05
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-01-23
Bitcoin declines at least 10% measured by daily closes (Cowen's stated definition in the source — he explicitly disregards intraday wicks) at some point on or before 2024-04-05.
Criterion (>=10% peak-to-trough decline on or before 2024-04-05) is satisfied with a wide margin: the post-ETF-launch drop from ~$49k to ~$38.5k over 2024-01-11 to 2024-01-23 was ~20%+. resolved_on set to the trough date; the 10% threshold was actually breached within ~24-48h of the $49k peak in mid-January.
Sources
Bitcoin: Days Since X% Drawdown
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin peaked at ~$49,000 on 2024-01-11 (spot-ETF launch day), then sold off in a 'sell the news' rout, falling below $42,000 the next day (~-10% intraday) and continuing down.
The decline extended to a local bottom of ~$38,500-$39,600 on 2024-01-23 — a peak-to-trough drop of roughly 20-22% from the $49k high, well over the 10% threshold, and entirely within the window ending 2024-04-05.
Corrections
- Resolution criterion: Faithfulness to the pundit's own operational definition given in the same video. Outcome unchanged: daily-close drawdown ~$46.9k→~$39.5k ≈ 16%, still a resolved hit.
Score contribution
+1.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin undergoes at least a 10% price correction within th…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources