Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve will adopt a looser, more dovish policy outlook in 2024.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“good chance we're going to see them them you know start to become a little bit looser with their with their Outlook in 2024”
The Federal Reserve will adopt a looser, more dovish policy outlook in 2024.
- Made on
- 2023-12-12
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-09-18
The Fed shifts to a dovish stance in 2024 (pauses/cuts rates or signals easing).
Criterion is satisfied if the Fed shifts dovish in 2024 (pauses/cuts or signals easing). The Fed both signaled easing early in 2024 (holding rates while projecting cuts) and then actually cut rates three consecutive meetings (Sep 50bp, Nov 25bp, Dec 25bp), a clear dovish shift. resolved_on set to the first cut (Sep 18, 2024), the unambiguous pivot point.
Sources
Bitcoin: Entry/Exit Strategies
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The FOMC cut the federal funds target range by 50bp on Sep 18, 2024 — its first rate cut in over four years — marking an explicit pivot to policy easing.
The Fed followed with 25bp cuts in November and December 2024, totaling 100bp of easing over Sep–Dec 2024 and bringing the target range to 4.25%–4.50%, confirming a sustained dovish stance across 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will adopt a looser, more dovish policy…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-12-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources