Prediction record
MisscryptoAltcoins will outperform Bitcoin in 2024, given no US recession occurs.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“if if we were to go into a recession in 2024 then I imagine altcoins would get hit harder than Bitcoin um if we don't go into a recession then I imagine altcoins would outperform Bitcoin”
Altcoins will outperform Bitcoin in 2024, given no US recession occurs.
- Made on
- 2023-12-08
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-12-31
A broad equal-weight altcoin index outperforms BTC over calendar year 2024.
Criterion = a broad equal-weight altcoin index outperforms BTC over 2024, given no recession. Condition (no recession) satisfied. Evidence: broad altcoins did NOT outperform BTC in 2024 (TOTAL3/BTC closed lower; dominance rose) — criterion NOT met. Caveat: a handful of large-caps (XRP, SOL) did beat BTC on the year, but the broad/equal-weight altcoin complex did not. Outcome value left to scorer.
Sources
Bitcoin: Market Cycle ROI
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The conditional held: no US recession occurred in 2024 (real GDP grew ~2.8%; NBER declared no recession), so the prediction is evaluable rather than void.
Broad altcoins UNDERPERFORMED Bitcoin over calendar 2024: the TOTAL3/BTC ratio (broad alts vs BTC) closed LOWER in 2024 — one of four consecutive annual losses vs BTC — and BTC dominance rose over the year (2024 avg ~51.9%).
Corroboration: altcoins underperformed Bitcoin for a fourth consecutive year including 2024; BTC outperformed the majority of the top-100 assets, with the Altcoin Season Index depressed for most of the year.
Corrections
- tags: Tag by subject (altcoin vs BTC performance = crypto); the recession is the condition, so economy secondary.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Altcoins will outperform Bitcoin in 2024, given no US reces…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-12-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources