Full record
MisscryptoBitcoin will test (retrace to touch) its 100-week moving average within the next four to eight weeks (by late January 2024).
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“That'll be, I think, the big test coming to us, probably, you know, probably within the next four to four to eight weeks or so.”
Bitcoin will test (retrace to touch) its 100-week moving average within the next four to eight weeks (by late January 2024).
- Made on
- 2023-11-28
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.56
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-01-25
Bitcoin's price touches or falls below its 100-week SMA at least once on or before 2024-01-25.
Criterion = BTC touches/falls below 100W SMA on/before 2024-01-25. Window low (~$38.5k) sat ~20%+ above the 100W SMA (~$31k). Evidence points to NO touch (criterion not met). High confidence; the ~$31k SMA level is derived from Cowen's own '36% above' figure rather than a raw SMA data pull. Outcome value left to scorer.
Sources
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Cowen's own late-Dec-2023 analysis put BTC at $42,297, ~36% ABOVE its 100-week SMA, implying the 100W SMA sat near ~$31,000 in early January 2024.
On 2024-01-23 (two days before the deadline) Cowen framed a correction toward the 100W SMA as still potentially 'underway' — i.e. BTC had NOT yet touched it; a backtest was expected 'within the first few months of 2024', not achieved in the window.
BTC's lowest print in the Nov-28-2023 → Jan-25-2024 window was ~$38.5k (post-ETF 'sell-the-news' dip around 2024-01-23), which stayed well above the ~$31k 100-week SMA. Price never descended to touch it.
Corrections
- tags: BTC 100-week SMA is a Bitcoin price level → 'crypto'.
- horizon deadline: 8 weeks from made_on 2023-11-28 = 2024-01-23 (56 days). Immaterial to resolution — BTC never touched the SMA.
Effect on the score
-0.56- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin will test (retrace to touch) its 100-week moving av…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-11-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources