Full record
MisseconomyA US recession begins by early 2024
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“the recession risk that I think is going to materialize at the end of this year or early next year”
A US recession begins by early 2024
- Made on
- 2023-10-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.77
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-31
An NBER-recognized US recession (or two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP) begins on or before 2024-03-31.
No US recession began on or before 2024-03-31 under either the NBER definition or the two-negative-quarters proxy. Claim not met. NBER dating is retrospective, but the multi-year interval since has confirmed no recession was seated in this window.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 39)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has recognized no US recession beginning in late 2023 or early 2024; the most recent NBER peak/trough remains Feb 2020 / Apr 2020. No recession was declared on or before 2024-03-31.
The alternative criterion (two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP) was also not met: US real GDP grew through the window (Q4 2023 ~+3.4% and Q1 2024 positive), so no technical recession began by 2024-03-31.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.77- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
A US recession begins by early 2024- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-10-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources