Prediction record
MisscryptoThe altcoin market keeps bleeding through the end of the pre-halving year (December 2023)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“my expectation is has been and will continue to be that the altcoin market will bleed in the prehab year”
The altcoin market keeps bleeding through the end of the pre-halving year (December 2023)
- Made on
- 2023-10-18
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
The altcoin market cap (TOTAL2 / altcoin index) is lower on 2023-12-31 than at made_on.
TOTAL2 higher on 2023-12-31 (~$830B) than at made_on (~$531B); the written criterion (TOTAL2 lower at deadline) is not satisfied. TOTAL2 computed as total crypto market cap minus BTC market cap using archived CMC total market cap and BTC dominance on the two dates. No outcome value assigned (scoring is a later stage).
Sources
Bitcoin: Social Risk
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Archived CoinMarketCap global stats on 2023-10-18 (≈made_on 2023-10-18): total crypto market cap $1,085,187,568,086 with BTC dominance 51.03% → altcoin market cap (TOTAL2 = total − BTC) ≈ $531B.
Archived CoinMarketCap global stats on 2023-12-31: total crypto market cap $1,661,986,621,334 with BTC dominance 50.06% → altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) ≈ $830B. TOTAL2 rose ~56% over the window; altcoins did not bleed but rallied (Q4-2023 pre-ETF rally).
Corroborating BTC market cap from CoinCodex history API: $554.3B on 2023-10-18 and $824.7B on 2023-12-30, consistent with the CMC total×dominance decomposition above.
Corrections
- tags: A pure crypto price/level bet must also carry markets as secondary per the crypto-vs-markets boundary rule.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The altcoin market keeps bleeding through the end of the pr…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-10-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources