Full record
MisscryptoThe altcoin market keeps bleeding through the end of the pre-halving year (December 2023)
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“my expectation is has been and will continue to be that the altcoin market will bleed in the prehab year”
The altcoin market keeps bleeding through the end of the pre-halving year (December 2023)
- Made on
- 2023-10-18
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
The altcoin market cap (TOTAL2 / altcoin index) is lower on 2023-12-31 than at made_on.
TOTAL2 higher on 2023-12-31 (~$830B) than at made_on (~$531B); the written criterion (TOTAL2 lower at deadline) is not satisfied. TOTAL2 computed as total crypto market cap minus BTC market cap using archived CMC total market cap and BTC dominance on the two dates. No outcome value assigned (scoring is a later stage).
Sources
Bitcoin: Social Risk
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Archived CoinMarketCap global stats on 2023-10-18 (≈made_on 2023-10-18): total crypto market cap $1,085,187,568,086 with BTC dominance 51.03% → altcoin market cap (TOTAL2 = total − BTC) ≈ $531B.
Archived CoinMarketCap global stats on 2023-12-31: total crypto market cap $1,661,986,621,334 with BTC dominance 50.06% → altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) ≈ $830B. TOTAL2 rose ~56% over the window; altcoins did not bleed but rallied (Q4-2023 pre-ETF rally).
Corroborating BTC market cap from CoinCodex history API: $554.3B on 2023-10-18 and $824.7B on 2023-12-30, consistent with the CMC total×dominance decomposition above.
Corrections
- tags: A pure crypto price/level bet must also carry markets as secondary per the crypto-vs-markets boundary rule.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The altcoin market keeps bleeding through the end of the pr…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-10-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources