Prediction record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve does not pivot (begin cutting rates) in 2023
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“I don't think the fed's going to Pivot this year”
The Federal Reserve does not pivot (begin cutting rates) in 2023
- Made on
- 2023-09-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.02
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
The Fed does not begin cutting rates at any point during calendar 2023
Criterion is that the Fed does not BEGIN cutting rates at any point in calendar 2023. The Fed's rate actions in 2023 were four hikes (Feb 1, Mar 22, May 3, Jul 26) followed by four holds (Sep 20, Nov 1, Dec 13; the Jun 14 meeting was also a hold). At no point in 2023 did the FOMC lower the target range — the range only rose or held, ending the year at 5.25%–5.50%, the level set on Jul 26. The first cut of the cycle came Sep 18, 2024. Prediction criterion is unambiguously satisfied. December 2023 FOMC statement URL is inferred from the Fed's stable date-based URL scheme (verified pattern for the Feb/Mar/Jul/Sep/Nov 2023 statements); the underlying fact — Dec 13, 2023 hold at 5.25%–5.50% — is well documented and not in dispute.
Sources
The Altcoin Reckoning
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
FOMC statement, July 26, 2023: raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 5.25%–5.50%. This was the FINAL rate move of 2023 and an increase, not a cut.
FOMC statement, September 20, 2023: held the target range at 5.25%–5.50% (no cut).
FOMC statement, November 1, 2023: held the target range at 5.25%–5.50% (no cut); second consecutive hold.
FOMC statement, December 13, 2023: held the target range at 5.25%–5.50% (no cut); final meeting of the year, closing out 2023 with no rate cut.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.02- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.02
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Federal Reserve does not pivot (begin cutting rates) in…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-09-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources