Full record
MisscryptoBitcoin's total indicator risk will reach the 0–0.1 wristband (band) by the end of 2023.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“I would say that is a likely outcome that we will see this year”
Bitcoin's total indicator risk will reach the 0–0.1 wristband (band) by the end of 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-09-04
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
Bitcoin's total indicator risk metric (Cowen's own published risk model) reaches the 0–0.1 band on or before 2023-12-31.
The prediction (made 2023-09-04, BTC ~$26k) required the risk metric to fall into the 0–0.1 deep-bottom band by 2023-12-31. Instead BTC rallied strongly into year-end (+155% YoY, close ~$42,255), pushing the cycle-position metric up, not down. The band was not reached before the deadline. Resolution rests on the metric's published definition plus the unambiguous price path; Cowen's exact per-day risk value is proprietary and not published here as a citable primary timeseries, but no plausible calibration places a +155% up-year closing near yearly highs in the 0–0.1 band. resolved_on set to the deadline date (event did not occur by deadline).
Sources
Bitcoin Risk Metric
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Cowen's Bitcoin Risk Metric is a normalized cycle-position index bounded 0–1, where 0 = statistically the cycle bottom (deep accumulation) and 1 = the cycle top. A 0–0.1 reading therefore requires deep cycle-bottom price conditions.
Bitcoin rose ~155% across 2023 and closed Dec 31, 2023 at ~$42,255 — near its highest level of the year, the opposite of cycle-bottom conditions. The risk metric consequently rose through H2 2023 rather than falling into the 0–0.1 band.
Bitcoin broke above $40,000 for the first time since April 2022 in early December 2023 (hit ~$42K on Dec 3–4), driven by spot-ETF anticipation and rate-cut bets — confirming an up-trending, elevated-price regime into year-end, incompatible with a 0–0.1 risk reading.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Current verbatim is a stripped fragment lacking subject and certainty marker; the fuller phrase is contiguous in the transcript at t=946s, carries the 'likely outcome' commitment, and better represents the scored claim.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin's total indicator risk will reach the 0–0.1 wristba…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-09-04
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources