Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin remains in a downtrend until the Federal Reserve pivots (expected ~July 2024)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“that it's going to remain in a downtrend until the FED pivots is my view”
Bitcoin remains in a downtrend until the Federal Reserve pivots (expected ~July 2024)
- Made on
- 2023-09-21
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-07-01
Bitcoin stays in a net downtrend until the Fed pivots to rate cuts (expected ~July 2024)
Criterion (BTC stays in a net downtrend until the Fed pivots, expected ~July 2024) is contradicted: BTC was in a pronounced uptrend (ATH March 2024) through the 2024-07-01 deadline, and the Fed pivot did not occur until Sept 2024. Resolved against the criterion; no outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
FOMC, Yield Curve, Inflation, and Bitcoin
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin was in a strong UPTREND, not a downtrend, over the claim window: it rose from ~$27k (Sept 2023) to a new all-time high above $71,000 on March 11, 2024, and was trading in the ~$60k range by the July 1, 2024 deadline — far above the claim-date price.
The Federal Reserve did not pivot to rate cuts until September 18, 2024 (first cut in four years, 50bp to 4.75%-5.00%), i.e. after the ~July 2024 expected-pivot date and after the deadline. So even the premise's timing did not hold, and BTC had already rallied sharply before any pivot.
Corrections
- tags: Subject is Bitcoin's price trend; crypto primary with economy (Fed pivot) as secondary — tag the subject not the cause.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin remains in a downtrend until the Federal Reserve pi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-09-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources