Prediction record
MissmarketsBitcoin will spend the second half of 2023 mostly in a downtrend, declining over the period.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“Bitcoin will spend the the rest of the year uh mostly in a downtrend”
Bitcoin will spend the second half of 2023 mostly in a downtrend, declining over the period.
- Made on
- 2023-09-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
Bitcoin's price on 2023-12-31 is below its 2023-06-30 (H1 close) level — i.e. BTC posts a net decline over H2 2023.
Criterion (2023-12-31 close below 2023-06-30 close) is unambiguously NOT met: $42,265 > $30,477. H2 2023 was a net rise.
Sources
Bitcoin: Death Cross
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC H1 close (2023-06-30) = $30,477.25; BTC 2023-12-31 close = $42,265.19. BTC ended H2 2023 roughly +38.7% ABOVE its H1 close — a net GAIN over H2, not a decline. Monthly closes rose steadily: Sep $26,967.92, Oct $34,667.78, Nov $37,712.75, Dec $42,265.19.
CoinDesk: BTC surged ~27% in October 2023 and broke above $40,000 in early December 2023 for the first time in 18 months, confirming a strong H2 uptrend rather than a downtrend.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will spend the second half of 2023 mostly in a down…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-09-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources