Full record
MissmarketsBitcoin will spend the second half of 2023 mostly in a downtrend, declining over the period.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“Bitcoin will spend the the rest of the year uh mostly in a downtrend”
Bitcoin will spend the second half of 2023 mostly in a downtrend, declining over the period.
- Made on
- 2023-09-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
Bitcoin's price on 2023-12-31 is below its 2023-06-30 (H1 close) level — i.e. BTC posts a net decline over H2 2023.
Criterion (2023-12-31 close below 2023-06-30 close) is unambiguously NOT met: $42,265 > $30,477. H2 2023 was a net rise.
Sources
Bitcoin: Death Cross
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
BTC H1 close (2023-06-30) = $30,477.25; BTC 2023-12-31 close = $42,265.19. BTC ended H2 2023 roughly +38.7% ABOVE its H1 close — a net GAIN over H2, not a decline. Monthly closes rose steadily: Sep $26,967.92, Oct $34,667.78, Nov $37,712.75, Dec $42,265.19.
CoinDesk: BTC surged ~27% in October 2023 and broke above $40,000 in early December 2023 for the first time in 18 months, confirming a strong H2 uptrend rather than a downtrend.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin will spend the second half of 2023 mostly in a down…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-09-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources