Prediction record
MisseconomyA US recession materializes by the end of the current business cycle, with Q1 2024 as the outer bound
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“I do think will happen at the end of this business cycle but for all we know it might not be until until q1 of of 2024”
A US recession materializes by the end of the current business cycle, with Q1 2024 as the outer bound
- Made on
- 2023-08-11
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.77
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-31
The US enters a recession (NBER-dated, or two consecutive negative real-GDP quarters) on or before 2024-03-31
Both resolution paths in the criterion fail: no NBER-dated recession by 2024-03-31, and no two consecutive negative real-GDP quarters (all positive). The predicted recession did not materialize by the Q1 2024 outer bound. Q1 2024 GDP first estimate was published 2024-04-25, but every quarter through the deadline was already positive, so the negative outcome was determinable at the deadline.
Sources
S&P 500 Seasonal Correction
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee has dated no new business-cycle peak since the February 2020 peak; the only recession it has dated in this window is the two-month Feb–Apr 2020 contraction. No US recession was NBER-dated on or before 2024-03-31.
BEA real GDP was positive in every quarter through the deadline, so the alternative 'two consecutive negative real-GDP quarters' trigger was never met: Q3 2023 +4.9%, Q4 2023 +3.4% (later estimate), Q1 2024 +1.3% (annualized, real).
BEA Q4/Year 2023 release confirms continued expansion through 2023 with no negative quarters.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.77- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.77
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
A US recession materializes by the end of the current busin…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-08-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources