Prediction record
MisseconomyUS initial unemployment claims will slowly continue to rise over the coming months.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“my speculation is that initial claims will slowly continue to go up as the months pass”
US initial unemployment claims will slowly continue to rise over the coming months.
- Made on
- 2023-07-07
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-07-07
US initial jobless claims trend net higher over the ~12 months following 2023-07-07.
Criterion: claims 'trend net higher over the ~12 months following 2023-07-07.' Net over the full window they did not — claims were range-bound and ended roughly flat to slightly lower. Both sides noted: there WAS a modest, temporary uptick in July–early August 2024 (claims rose toward ~250k, feeding brief recession fears), consistent with a mild rise near the very end of the window; but this reversed and the 12-month NET trend was not higher. Because the net-trend criterion is determinable and the net direction is clear (not net higher), status is resolved rather than pending; the near-endpoint uptick is flagged so a later scoring stage can weigh 'slowly rising' claims. Exact weekly endpoint figures should be confirmed against the FRED/DOL series before scoring. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Jobs Report
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
US seasonally-adjusted initial jobless claims (FRED series ICSA) were range-bound over 2023-07-07 → 2024-07-07, roughly 190k–260k, and ended the window at about the same level or slightly LOWER than the start rather than trending net higher. Early July 2023 readings were ~248k–249k (4-week avg ~253k); mid-2024 readings and the 4-week average sat in the ~230k–238k area — a net flat-to-lower outcome over the ~12 months.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims (FRED series IC4WSA), which smooths weekly noise, shows the same picture: it was near ~253k in early July 2023 and drifted lower through late 2023 into the ~215k–235k band during 2024, i.e. no sustained upward trend over the window. Primary weekly source is the DOL/ETA Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.
Underlying primary release: U.S. Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration weekly UI claims reports (published each Thursday), the source series FRED mirrors.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
US initial unemployment claims will slowly continue to rise…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-07-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources