Prediction record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve will not begin cutting interest rates in the near term.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“I do not anticipate the FED pivoting immediately and so I don't think that we'll see inflation surge back up in the same way that we did back over here”
The Federal Reserve will not begin cutting interest rates in the near term.
- Made on
- 2023-07-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-10-13
The Fed does not begin cutting its policy rate by ~2023-10-13.
Criterion: 'Fed does not begin cutting its policy rate by ~2023-10-13.' Unambiguously satisfied — the Fed held/hiked through late 2023 and did not cut until Sept 2024. resolved_on set to the deadline (2023-10-13), the point at which the no-cut condition was conclusively met given the Sept 20, 2023 hold and no intervening meeting. No outcome value assigned per stage separation.
Sources
CPI Report
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The FOMC RAISED the target range to 5.25%–5.50% at its July 25–26, 2023 meeting (its last hike of the cycle), then HELD at 5.25%–5.50% at the September 19–20, 2023 meeting. No FOMC meeting occurred between Sept 20 and the record's ~Oct 13, 2023 deadline (next meeting was Oct 31–Nov 1, 2023). Therefore the Fed had not begun cutting by ~2023-10-13.
The Fed's FIRST rate cut of the cycle did not come until September 18, 2024, when the FOMC lowered the target range by 0.50 pp to 4.75%–5.00% — nearly 11 months after this record's deadline. This confirms no cut had begun in the near-term window ending ~Oct 13, 2023.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Federal Reserve will not begin cutting interest rates i…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-07-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources