Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve will not begin cutting interest rates in the near term.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I do not anticipate the FED pivoting immediately and so I don't think that we'll see inflation surge back up in the same way that we did back over here”
The Federal Reserve will not begin cutting interest rates in the near term.
- Made on
- 2023-07-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-10-13
The Fed does not begin cutting its policy rate by ~2023-10-13.
Criterion: 'Fed does not begin cutting its policy rate by ~2023-10-13.' Unambiguously satisfied — the Fed held/hiked through late 2023 and did not cut until Sept 2024. resolved_on set to the deadline (2023-10-13), the point at which the no-cut condition was conclusively met given the Sept 20, 2023 hold and no intervening meeting. No outcome value assigned per stage separation.
Sources
CPI Report
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The FOMC RAISED the target range to 5.25%–5.50% at its July 25–26, 2023 meeting (its last hike of the cycle), then HELD at 5.25%–5.50% at the September 19–20, 2023 meeting. No FOMC meeting occurred between Sept 20 and the record's ~Oct 13, 2023 deadline (next meeting was Oct 31–Nov 1, 2023). Therefore the Fed had not begun cutting by ~2023-10-13.
The Fed's FIRST rate cut of the cycle did not come until September 18, 2024, when the FOMC lowered the target range by 0.50 pp to 4.75%–5.00% — nearly 11 months after this record's deadline. This confirms no cut had begun in the near-term window ending ~Oct 13, 2023.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will not begin cutting interest rates i…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-07-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources