Full record
MissmarketsEthereum underperforms and bleeds (declines / fails to sustain) in the second half of 2023.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“ethereum will bleed into the second half of the year”
Ethereum underperforms and bleeds (declines / fails to sustain) in the second half of 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-06-20
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
Ethereum's price ends H2 2023 (by 2023-12-31) net lower than its late-June 2023 level.
Claim did NOT occur. Under the written criterion (Dec-31-2023 close vs late-June-2023 level), ETH ended H2 2023 net HIGHER (~$2,282 vs ~$1,730–1,900), the opposite of 'bleeds/declines/fails to sustain.' Facts are unambiguous; no conflicting evidence. Outcome value (o) not assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin: Social Risk
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
ETH's late-June 2023 level (the claim's reference point) was roughly $1,730–$1,900 (June 20, 2023 ~$1,730; end-June ~$1,900 amid the BlackRock spot-ETF filing rally).
ETH closed H2 2023 on Dec 31, 2023 at ~$2,282 — materially HIGHER than its late-June 2023 level, i.e. it did not end net lower.
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: Actual marker is 'I think ethereum WILL bleed'; 'likely' does not appear in the claim clause.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Ethereum underperforms and bleeds (declines / fails to sust…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-06-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources