Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin undergoes at least one more significant price scare (sharp drawdown) during H2 2023 or early 2024.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“I would expect one more scare in Bitcoin sometime in either the second half of the year or in the early part of 2024”
Bitcoin undergoes at least one more significant price scare (sharp drawdown) during H2 2023 or early 2024.
- Made on
- 2023-06-02
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-09-11
Bitcoin experiences at least one drawdown of ≥20% from a local peak between 2023-07-01 and 2024-03-31.
Margin is close to the 20% line depending on the exact peak/low ticks used (July high ~$31.5-31.8k, Sept low ~$24.9-25.4k → ~20-22%). Using the mid-July peak and the September 11 low it clears 20%. resolved_on set to the September low that completed the drawdown. Not marked needs_human_review because multiple credible sources put the trough below the 20%-from-peak line.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 36)
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin set a mid-July 2023 local peak of ~$31,500-$31,800 (July 13-14, on the Ripple ruling) and then fell to ~$24,900-$25,400 by August 17 / September 11, 2023 — a peak-to-trough drawdown of roughly 20-22%, clearing the ≥20% threshold within the 2023-07-01 to 2024-03-31 window.
Bitbo 2023 chart confirms the July local high near ~$31.8k and the late-summer trough near ~$24.9k, consistent with a >20% drawdown; the Aug 17 flash sell-off (~$29k→~$26k intraday) is an additional scare within the same window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin undergoes at least one more significant price scare…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-06-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources