Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin will suffer a liquidity-driven sell-off (a 'secondary scare') at some point before the end of 2023.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“At some point this year I think we will reach a phase where there's not enough liquidity from the altcoin market to sustain bitcoin's valuation in the short term, and we'll get a secondary scare.”
Bitcoin will suffer a liquidity-driven sell-off (a 'secondary scare') at some point before the end of 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-06-25
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-09-11
BTC experiences a peak-to-trough decline of ≥20% at some point during H2 2023 (Jul 1–Dec 31 2023).
Criterion (≥20% peak-to-trough BTC decline during H2 2023) met: mid-July high (~$31.8k) to early/mid-September low (~$24.9k) is ~21.7%. Trough date ~2023-09-11 used as resolution date. The August drawdown was a liquidity/leverage-driven sell-off consistent with the described 'secondary scare.'
Sources
Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
H2 2023 peak was ~$31,000–$31,800 in mid-July 2023; BTC then fell sharply, with a panic sell-off on 2023-08-17 taking it toward ~$25,000, dipping under $29,000 to start August.
BTC slumped to ~$25,370 by 2023-08-31 and probed ~$24,900–$25,000 lows into September 2023. Peak-to-trough (~$31.8k → ~$24.9k) ≈ 21–22% decline within Jul 1–Dec 31 2023, meeting the ≥20% threshold.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will suffer a liquidity-driven sell-off (a 'seconda…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-06-25
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources