Full record
MisseconomyThe inverted US Treasury yield curve un-inverts (resolves) at some point before the April 2024 Bitcoin halving.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“Between now and the next having we will likely see some some type of resolution to to the to the inverted yield curve and and that will be sort of the secondary scare for Bitcoin.”
The inverted US Treasury yield curve un-inverts (resolves) at some point before the April 2024 Bitcoin halving.
- Made on
- 2023-05-15
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-04-30
The 10Y-2Y (or 10Y-3M) US Treasury spread returns to ≥0 at least once between 2023-05-15 and the April 2024 halving.
Criterion offered either the 10Y-2Y OR the 10Y-3M spread; both stayed strictly inverted through the April 2024 halving (~2024-04-19/20). Neither returned to ≥0 in the window, so the claim is falsified. resolved_on set to the record deadline (2024-04-30), by which the halving had passed with no un-inversion.
Sources
Bitcoin: Year-To-Date ROI
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The 10Y-2Y Treasury spread (FRED T10Y2Y) remained continuously inverted (negative) from July 2022 until it returned to ≥0 only in ~September/October 2024 — well AFTER the April 2024 Bitcoin halving. It never reached ≥0 between 2023-05-15 and the halving.
The 10Y-3M spread (the criterion's alternative measure) stayed inverted even longer, from October 2022 until ~December 13, 2024 — also never un-inverting before the April 2024 halving.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The inverted US Treasury yield curve un-inverts (resolves)…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources