Prediction record
MisseconomyThe US enters a recession by early 2024
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“I do tend to think that we likely will get a recession at the end of this although it's it could still be um a ways off right I mean it could it could easily occur maybe later this year I've even said it could hurt it happen early next year”
The US enters a recession by early 2024
- Made on
- 2023-05-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.4
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-31
NBER-dated US recession (or two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP) begins on or before 2024-03-31
Criterion (NBER-dated recession OR two consecutive negative real-GDP quarters beginning on/before 2024-03-31) was not met by either measure. Window closed 2024-03-31. NBER dating is retrospective, but as of today (2026-07-12) no peak/recession has been dated in the relevant period, and all intervening GDP quarters were positive, so the outcome is settled.
Sources
Unemployment Rate at Historic Lows
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has announced no business-cycle peak since the February 2020 peak (April 2020 trough was the last turning point). No US recession has been dated to begin on or before 2024-03-31.
BEA real GDP: no negative quarters in 2023 or 2024 — Q3 2023 +4.9%, Q4 2023 +3.3%, Q1 2024 +1.3% (annualized). There were no two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP through the deadline, so the alternative criterion also fails.
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: Recorded marker is not spoken in the primary source SYi0qNomj18 (it belongs to the RnHjL8bt8fU video); use the marker actually spoken in this source.
Score contribution
-1.4- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.4
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US enters a recession by early 2024- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources