Prediction record
MisseconomyA US recession begins in H2 2023 or by early 2024, becoming visible in the economic data.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“I think we likely get a recession in either the second half of the year or the early part of 2024”
A US recession begins in H2 2023 or by early 2024, becoming visible in the economic data.
- Made on
- 2023-05-14
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.4
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-31
NBER dates a US recession with a peak in H2 2023, OR two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth occur, on or before 2024-03-31.
Criterion written with an OR; both branches failed by the deadline (no NBER peak dated with an H2-2023 peak, and no two consecutive negative real-GDP quarters). Clean resolution against the claim. resolved_on set to the deadline, the point by which both conditions were determinably unmet.
Sources
Bitcoin and the Yield Curve
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has NOT declared any economic peak (recession start) since the April 2020 trough; no recession with a peak in H2 2023 was dated on or before the deadline. The US remained in the ongoing expansion.
US real GDP grew in every quarter of 2023 (BEA/FRED): no two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth occurred in H2 2023 or Q1 2024. Both limbs of the criterion (NBER peak OR two negative quarters) were unmet by 2024-03-31.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.4- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.4
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
A US recession begins in H2 2023 or by early 2024, becoming…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources