Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve does not pivot (no significant rate cuts) for at least the next 12 months
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“their their fight on inflation their fight with inflation will likely continue, and I I I think that they will not be throwing in the towel anytime soon”
The Federal Reserve does not pivot (no significant rate cuts) for at least the next 12 months
- Made on
- 2023-05-11
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-05-11
the Fed makes no significant rate cut / policy pivot for at least 12 months from May 2023 (through ~May 2024)
Deadline 2024-05-11 elapsed with zero rate cuts; first cut was 2024-09-18, ~4 months after the deadline. The written criterion (no significant rate cut / pivot for 12 months from May 2023 through ~May 2024) is unambiguously satisfied by official Fed data. Cleanest of the three. No outcome value assigned here.
Sources
CPI
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 5.25%–5.50% from its July 2023 hike until its first cut on September 18, 2024 (a 50bp cut to 4.75%–5.00%), the first reduction since March 2020 — i.e. the Fed made NO rate cut / no pivot across the entire May 2023 → May 2024 window.
Congressional Research Service / official FOMC calendar confirm rates were held steady through the first half of 2024 as Q1 2024 inflation reaccelerated to ~3.4%, delaying any cut well past May 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve does not pivot (no significant rate cut…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources