Prediction record

Hiteconomy

The Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates at its July 2023 meeting

A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .

VideoPrimary sourceeconomy

Scored record

Hiteconomy

I mean I think it's probably a little bit optimistic by the market to think that they're going to get a cut in July, right?

The Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates at its July 2023 meeting

Made on
2023-05-04
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
+2.76

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2023-07-26

the Fed does not lower the federal funds rate target at or before the July 2023 FOMC meeting

Criterion (Fed does not lower the funds-rate target at/before the July 2023 FOMC) satisfied unambiguously — the Fed hiked rather than cut. Only one FOMC meeting fell in the window (July 25–26, 2023). No conflicting evidence.

Sources

  • FOMC

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • Federal Reserve FOMC statement, July 26, 2023: the Committee RAISED the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 5.25%–5.50%. This is the opposite of a cut, so the prediction that the Fed 'does not cut' at the July 2023 meeting is directly confirmed.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Score contribution

+2.76
Confidence
80%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
+2.76

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

The Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates at its July…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 18, 2026
Made on
2023-05-04

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Evidence firstMethodology