Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates at its July 2023 meeting
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I mean I think it's probably a little bit optimistic by the market to think that they're going to get a cut in July, right?”
The Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates at its July 2023 meeting
- Made on
- 2023-05-04
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-07-26
the Fed does not lower the federal funds rate target at or before the July 2023 FOMC meeting
Criterion (Fed does not lower the funds-rate target at/before the July 2023 FOMC) satisfied unambiguously — the Fed hiked rather than cut. Only one FOMC meeting fell in the window (July 25–26, 2023). No conflicting evidence.
Sources
FOMC
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Federal Reserve FOMC statement, July 26, 2023: the Committee RAISED the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 5.25%–5.50%. This is the opposite of a cut, so the prediction that the Fed 'does not cut' at the July 2023 meeting is directly confirmed.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates at its July…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-04
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources