Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin's H1 2023 rally fades and BTC/USD falls back below its bull market support band in H2 2023
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“I I still have the opinion that it will it will probably follow a very similar path like we've previously seen in the sense that it will likely go back below the bull market support band this year and spend a considerable amount of time there”
Bitcoin's H1 2023 rally fades and BTC/USD falls back below its bull market support band in H2 2023
- Made on
- 2023-05-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-08-20
BTC/USD prints a weekly close below its bull market support band (20-week SMA / 21-week EMA) at some point in Jul–Dec 2023
On-criterion (weekly close below the 20w SMA / 21w EMA band during Jul–Dec 2023). The H1 2023 rally faded and BTC lost the support band in mid-to-late August 2023, printing weekly closes near $25.9–26k versus a band around $27.5–28k, remaining below into September before reclaiming it during the Oct–Dec 2023 rally to ~$42k. resolved_on set to the first qualifying weekly close (~Aug 20, 2023). Band level is estimated from the trailing 20 weekly closes rather than an exact archived indicator value; the ~$1.5–2k gap between price and band makes the direction unambiguous even under estimation error.
Sources
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC/USD sold off sharply on Aug 17, 2023 (~9–11% drop from ~$28–29k), then continued lower — CoinDesk reports BTC probing the August low near $25,370–$25,500 by Aug 31, 2023, with the August monthly close at $25,931 (down 11.3% on the month). This carried price well below the bull market support band (20-week SMA / 21-week EMA), which sat roughly in the $27.5–28k region across late Aug–Sept 2023 (the trailing ~20 weekly closes ran ~$26–31k). BTC printed weekly closes below the band from the week of Aug 20 through much of September 2023.
Bull Market Support Band definition (20-week SMA + 21-week EMA) confirming the band construction referenced by the criterion; BTC's ~$25.9–26k late-August closes were below this zone given the ~$27.5–28k band level implied by prior-20-week closes.
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: 'I do fully believe' is not in this transcript (qLkDVL4e6Ts); it belongs to equdaO-ekMo. Actual in-context markers are the softer 'still have the opinion/probably/likely' — borrowed high-confidence marker would inflate p.
- tags: Crypto price/level bet → crypto primary, markets secondary.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's H1 2023 rally fades and BTC/USD falls back below…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources