Full record
MisseconomyThe US will enter a recession by early 2024
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“I think we'll have a recession and sort of the latter part of this year or early 2024 at the latest”
The US will enter a recession by early 2024
- Made on
- 2023-04-13
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.77
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-31
The US economy enters a recession (NBER-dated, or two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP) with onset by end of Q1 2024.
Criterion ('US enters a recession — NBER-dated, or two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP — with onset by end of Q1 2024') is NOT met under either the NBER standard or the two-quarters technical proxy. Some real-time indicators (Sahm rule, yield curve) flashed warnings mid-2024, but no recession materialized in the window. Resolved as not-occurred; outcome/scoring deferred.
Sources
Fed Projecting a Mild Recession
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee has dated NO US recession with an onset in 2023 or Q1 2024; the last dated recession ended in April 2020. NBER (not the two-quarters rule) is the official arbiter.
Real GDP was positive through the window — Q4 2023 (+3.4% annualized) and Q1 2024 (~+1.4-1.6% annualized) both grew — so there were no two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP with onset by end of Q1 2024. Even the alternate technical definition fails.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.77- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US will enter a recession by early 2024- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources