Full record
HiteconomyUS inflation declines notably through Q2–Q4 2023
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I have a feeling I have a feeling inflation is going to really start to come back down”
US inflation declines notably through Q2–Q4 2023
- Made on
- 2023-04-27
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.77
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
US headline CPI year-over-year falls materially across Q2–Q4 2023 (multiple months of declining YoY prints) relative to Q1 2023
Directly on-criterion. Headline CPI YoY declined materially and across multiple months from the Q1 2023 baseline (~5–6.4%) to 3.0% by June 2023, remaining in the low-3% range through Q4. Deadline 2023-12-31; resolved_on set to window close, though the material decline was already evident by the June 2023 print (released 2023-07-12).
Sources
Bitcoin On-Chain Risk
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
BLS CPI: US headline CPI YoY ran ~6% in Q1 2023 (Jan 6.4%, Feb 6.0%, Mar 5.0%), then fell materially across Q2–Q4 with a continuous declining sequence Feb→Jun (Apr 4.9%, May 4.0%, Jun 3.0%). Multiple consecutive months of declining YoY prints; June's 3.0% was ~half the Q1 level. Second half held in the 3.1–3.7% range (Jul 3.2, Aug 3.7, Sep 3.7, Oct 3.2, Nov 3.1, Dec 3.4), all well below Q1. Criterion (material YoY decline across Q2–Q4 vs Q1, multiple declining prints) satisfied.
BLS CPI January 2023 release: 6.4% over the prior 12 months, establishing the Q1 baseline that YoY prints subsequently fell from.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.77- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US inflation declines notably through Q2–Q4 2023- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources